There will be no outright winner in 2016 elections, says Ng’oma


DR Alex Ng’oma says there will be an election rerun in 2016 because there is currently no political party strong enough to garner 50 per cent plus one vote.

But PF secretary general Davies Chama says the 50 per cent plus one clause won’t hinder the ruling party from being re-elected next year.

Matero PF member of parliament Miles Sampa on Saturday warned PF district officials in Kasama to be careful as the 2016 elections would not be easy with the 50 per cent plus one clause in place.

Commenting on Sampa’s observation, Dr Ng’oma, a political analyst, said the country should prepare for a rerun.

“Look at the past elections and analyse the recent results of what each party got. No single political party was able to amass more than 50 per cent of the votes. Meaning therefore that there will be no outright winner in the race and only a re-run will give Zambians a President,” Dr Ng’oma said.

“Victory will be most certain to those parties which will be willing to extend their hands to other political parties in the re-run. So I think Miles Sampa was actually right to issue that warning; because it won’t be easy for both the PF and the opposition… It will be how credible you are to the people and that is the way it is going to work.”

He said the second round of voting is going to be crucial and that only an organised party would emerge victorious.

“We will have a situation where the parties that matter are those which are organised or well mobilised. I don’t see any political party winning an outright 50 per cent plus one in the first round; but what will separate the men from boys is the second round – the rerun where parties will now be required to extend hands to others to bring them on board and that is important for the nation because that will bring greater unity among the political parties and the nation. Weaker political parties will begin to fold up and they will be swallowed up by big political parties,” Dr Ng’oma said.

“If a political party is hostile and it doesn’t want other political parties to join it, then it will lose. So political parties should start checking their behaviour now, because with 50 per cent plus one, it won’t be easy for any party. And it is only a party which is going to attract other parties with political clout that will win.”

He further said the government would find money for a re-run just as it has been funding the many parliamentary by-elections.

“And when we talk of finances for a rerun, this is something which should be made clear to Zambians. People must not underestimate the capacity of government to mobilise money. Government has money for a rerun. Money will be found; where there is political will, money will be found. Money is not a factor for a rerun,” said Dr Ngoma.

“Zambians must know that democracy, for it to work, is an expensive exercise, so they must be willing to spend. I am happy that that clause has been passed because it is a true reflection of what the people of Zambia have always been wanting.”

But Chama said the 50 per cent plus one clause was not a factor for the ruling party.

“We have no problem with the 50 per cent plus one. If we didn’t support it, it wouldn’t have passed in Parliament. We have no problem whatsoever with the 50 per cent plus one. We believe very strongly that we have a partnership with the Zambian people and they are going to give us a landslide victory next year,” said Chama.

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